The Book
JUST RELEASED: In the recent book release "Determining the College Football Playoff: Weighted Wins, a Better Approach", authors Ray D. Theis and Mark G. Terwilliger include a comprehensive history of the college football championship and introduce the Weighted Wins system, an alternative model for the selection process. It is available now at many book outlets including
Amazon and
Barnes & Noble.
Weighted Wins
The basic premise of "Weighted Wins" is one the average fan would readily accept. All wins are not equal. Defeating a highly successful team, one with a winning record, is more difficult than defeating an unsuccessful team, one with a losing record. Therefore, the system assigns a weight to each opponent. This weight is determined in a fair, unbiased, and systematic manner by considering a team's record and the records of its opponents. After the weights are assigned, teams accumulate weighted wins and weighted losses.
Unlike the polls and some of the computers, "Weighted Wins" starts all teams from the same position. Each team begins the season with 0.00 wins and a weight of 1.00. (Since wins in all major sports count 1 win, the weight of 1.00 was chosen for the starting point.) As the season develops, the weight of a team increases or decreases depending on whether the team wins or loses. A weight of 1.20 would indicate a relatively strong team and a weight of .85 would indicate a much weaker team. Weights usually range from a high of approximately 1.45 to a low of .55.
The value of a team's win is determined by its opponent's weight. Losses are also weighted and determined in a consistent manner.
During the first sixteen years of the Bowl Championship Series, in eleven of those years, the team with the most "Weighted Wins" actually won the BCS Championship game. In all sixteen years, the BCS Champion came from the top four teams in the Weighted Wins standings. Check out a 16-year summary of Weighted Wins standings.
In fact, when comparing WW with BCS formula components, the WW system does better than all eight of the components at having the national chamption rated number one before the title game. It also compares favorably when having both the #1 and #2 teams in the championship game.
You can take a look at how the Weighted Wins standings have compared to the NCAA Selection Committee's picks over the past 7 years.
Note: In 2006, the WW system ranked Florida (12-1) as the #1 team and
Ohio State (12-0) as the #2 team. This was the first time that a team with one
loss finished with more weighted wins than a no loss team from a BCS conference
in over 25 years.
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