Statistical Comparison of Components of the BCS    

           Formula and Weighted Wins

 

Component that had both Number 1 and Number 2 teams in Championship Game

System
Years
Both Top 2 teams 
Percent
Harris Poll and AP
16
13
81
Coaches Poll 
16
13
81
Billingsley
15
12
80
Weighted Wins*
16
12
75
Colley Matrix 
13
9
69
Anderson Hester
16
10
63
Wolfe
13
8
62
Massey
15
9
60
Sagarin
16
9
56

                                                

  *Weighted Wins is not a component of BCS Formula

 

 

 Had National Champion rated Number 1 before National Championship Game

System
Years
Rated No. 1  
Percent
Weighted Wins*
16
11
69
Massey
15
7
47
Colley Matrix 
13
6
46
Harris Poll and AP
16
7
44
Billingsley
15
6
40
Anderson Hester
16
6
38
Sagarin
16
6
38
Wolfe
13
4
31
Coaches Poll 
16
5
31


In fact, the complete BCS Formula only had a 50% record in identifying the National Champion
(8 out of 16) before the title game compared to a 69% record of Weighted Wins (11 out of 16).